October 3, 2022

Nick Kyrgios vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas odds

Kyrgios Odds-140
Tsitsipas odds+116
More less39.5
Time | How to watchSaturday, to be determined | ESPN/ESPN+
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One of the tournament matches — at least on paper — will be played on Saturday at Wimbledon.

World number 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas will face one of the sport’s most talented players, Nick Kyrgios.

What is the value of this blockbuster match? Let’s go.

Kyrgios is an elite grass-court player

The Aussie made headlines a few weeks ago when he claimed he was “top five or top 10” in the world on grass, but he’s not wrong.

Kyrgios is 42-21 in his career on grass and he is 11-3 on the surface this year. One of those losses was a withdrawal to Mallorca, so he’s only really lost to Andy Murray and Hubert Hurkacz this year on grass.

Kyrgios picked up wins against Tsitsipas himself and other solid players like Jiri Lehecka and Marton Fucsovics.

With one of the best first serves in the game and groundstrokes that stay low, Kyrgios’ game is naturally suited to the box. He tends to add more topspin on his forehand, allowing him to get closer to the net and stay comfortable.

Kyrgios has an Elo rating on grass that is only 100 points lower than his hard-court number and that’s usually a good sign that someone is solid on grass, if you needed any further guidance.

His first-round match with Paul Jubb was on the razor’s edge, but Kyrgios pulled through and choked out Filip Krajinovic in the second round.

In that match, he hit 25 aces, had only one double fault, and did not face a single break point. Hush.

Tsitsipas makes big improvements on the surface

The Greek came into this season 2-4 on grass since 2019, but this year he went 8-2 with a Mallorca title.

Although his Elo grass pitch is more than 230 points off his hard-court number and nearly 400 points off his clay-court number, he has improved a lot this season. Tsitsipas shortened his shots by a touch and allowed himself to deal with the faster grass timing in a more tactical way.

Wins over Benjamin Bonzi (2), Roberto Bautista Agut and Jordan Thompson are no joke on the grass and he has the best catch and grass break percentages of his career.

In Halle, where Kyrgios beat Tsitsipas, the Greek’s second serve was problematic. He only won 50% of his second serve points against 81% for Kyrgios. That was the difference.

He will need to be a bit more aggressive behind that serve and the first serve if he wants to pass service games with less pressure.

And with the way Kyrgios is serving, relieving the pressure will be vital.

bet value

Although Tsitsipas has improved a lot on this surface, Kyrgios should be a bigger favorite than -140.

He really is one of the best turf runners in the world and he’s in good shape. We’re also still at the start of the tournament, so fitness shouldn’t be a big concern.

Kyrgios passed Tsitsipas by narrow margins in Halle, winning 3 out of 10 break points while Tsitsipas only got 1 out of 8, but that doesn’t reflect the class difference on this surface.

At the ATP level, Kyrgios has a 96.5% retention rate on grass this year – a remarkable number. This puts him ahead of service-oriented players, like Maxime Cressy, Reilly Opelka and Matteo Berrettini.

The pressure he puts on his opponents is relentless and considering that his ground shots are up there with the best players on grass, it’s a brutal game for Tsitsipas.

Not to mention that Kyrgios is 3-1 overall against Tsitsipas.

This does not mean that Tsitsipas can not win this match, but Kyrgios will win it far more than the implied 58.3% win probability he gets at this price.

Take: Kyrgios ML (-140, bet at -160)

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