September 24, 2022

Alcaraz vs Sinner Odds

Alcaraz odds-280
Sinner’s Chances+225
More less37.5
Time | How to watch10 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

It’s Wimbledon’s match of the day on Sunday.

Young sensations Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner face off on center court for a place in the quarter-finals.

Now that Alcaraz has found some rhythm, can they continue their run for the third Slam of the year? Does the Italian have what it takes to slow him down?

Let’s break it down.

Alcaraz comfortable on the grass

It was pretty clear from the start that even sports freaks aren’t immune to the period of acclimatization that comes with lawn tennis.

After needing five sets to knock down Yuichi Sugita in the first round last year, Alcaraz was absolutely beaten by Daniil Medvedev.

This season, Alcaraz opted to use Hurlingham’s exhibition as a warm-up and he gave up all four sets played.

Alcaraz’s first round at the All England Club was also nervous, having trailed two sets to one against Jan-Lennard Struff before coming back and winning the deciding match.

Since then, however, it seems to have found its footing. With incredible reaction times, sniping ability and great play from the baseline, once that world’s best move came along and was comfortable on the grass, he was always going to be a threat.

It looks like he’s found that comfort, as he’s won his last six sets, only one of which went beyond 10 matches.

Alcaraz’s signature return game is shining and his serve is up (his ace rate is double the rate he’s had in the last 52 weeks and his first service points won are up more than 80% compared to the number of 71.5% in the last 52).

Sinner looking for more progress on the grass

At 20, Sinner enters this match as the oldest player in this third round between two of the best young players in the sport.

He managed to capitalize on a decent draw, surviving Stan Wawrinka, handling lighter hitter Mikael Ymer in four sets, then beating John Isner on heavy serve down the straights.

It’s a very different test that awaits him in the Round of 16, as he’s tasked with trying to slow down an Alcaraz who is on a tear.

With consistent play from the baseline that generates easy power, Sinner has climbed the ATP rankings pretty quickly.

His backhand is the most consistent weapon, and the Italian doesn’t have too many weaknesses in his game from a serve and groundstroke perspective.

The problem for him is the movement on the grass pitches and his return game, as he has problems extending points against players who possess effective plus-one service games.

With Alcaraz having so much success behind their first serves this week, it’s going to be an uphill battle.

bet value

Alcaraz’s serve benefited greatly from the faster surface, and with him holding Phone a big advantage in the service return and athletics departments, it’s hard to bet against the Spaniard.

The display he has put up since the first round has been dominant and has signaled to the tennis world that he is ready to take on what has traditionally been his weakest surface.

It’s hard to find a path for Sinner on the return, and after Alcaraz managed to easily break down one of the best grass servers on the tour in round three, it’s easy to see Alcaraz winning by more than 6 games.

I’m going to trust the kid with the best all-round game who got better with every pass.

Pick: Alcaraz -4.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)

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