Bouzkova vs. Garcia odds
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Marie Bouzkova shows that she can play at a high level on grass, defeat grass pitch specialist Alison Riske 6-2, 6-3 in the third round.
But Caroline Garcia stands on her way to the quarter-finals. Garcia is currently on an eight-fight winning streak and will be a formidable opponent for the Czech.
Zoom on this round of 16.
Bouzkova A Wall Baseline
In Bouzkova’s only warm-up match for Wimbledon, she lost to Shelby Rogers at Eastbourne. However, since arriving in London, Bouzkova has breathed new life into her game.
In her last win against Riske, Bouzkova won 67% of her service points and saved all four break points she faced. On the return, she was a threat, winning 48% of her return points, including 59% on Riske’s second serve.
Bouzkova was solid from the baseline, hitting 16 winners and just 11 unforced errors in the game. In fact, Bouzkova’s previous two matches at the All England Club, against Danielle Collins and Ann Li, also saw her have a positive unforced win/error ratio.
She has now improved her career record on grass to 15-12. However, Bouzkova’s level of play this week doesn’t reflect that more modest record on grass, as the Czech is playing terrific tennis in London.
Bouzkova is an absolute wall from the baseline, clearly understanding how to move on the grass. She flies around the pitch, picking up countless tough rally balls, not just in play, but with depth and precision.
However, when given the chance, Bouzkova can step onto the pitch and break the ball. She hit a total of 58 winners this week for a reason. Also, Bouzkova doesn’t like going to the net, but has won 32 points out of 47 net points this tournament so far.
Garcia keeps winning
As mentioned earlier, Caroline Garcia is currently on an eight-game winning streak. In the week before Wimbledon, the Frenchwoman won the title in Bad Homburg, beating Bianca Andreescu by a set and a break in the final.
This week, Garcia continued his winning road. In the third round, Garcia defeated Shuai Zhang in a narrow 7-6(3), 7-6(5) victory. Garcia won 71% of her first-serve points and was only broken twice in the game. On the return, Garcia won 38% of his return points against Zhang’s big first serve. She hit 39 winners against just 27 unforced errors.
Garcia didn’t have an easy path to the knockout stages either. Along with beating former quarter-finalist Zhang, Garcia also had to beat British number one Emma Raducanu in the second round.
In every match at Wimbledon so far, Garcia has won over 70% of her first-serve points and, like Bouzkova, has had a positive unforced win-to-error ratio.
It’s that control over his groundstrokes that’s made the biggest difference this season on grass. As the Frenchwoman crumbled, she hit the ball hard, but without a clear game plan, resulting in a slew of unforced errors.
Garcia has played this season on grass with a clear game plan to attack and be aggressive, but with a more measured approach.
Garcia is now an impressive 45-24 as a pro and 10-2 on the grass season.
However, she took a medical delay yesterday for a problem with his left thigh and hip and it will be his ninth game in two countries in two weeks.
Fatigue and wear and tear are definitely issues to consider for Garcia, who seemed to run out of steam against Zhang before finishing the match just in time.
The exact player Garcia doesn’t want to play when he starts to burn out is an in-form Marie Bouzkova. The Czech’s ability to come back and her determination to keep the points alive will thwart Garcia’s aggressive play and force the tired Frenchwoman to score more points.
Bouzkova’s defensive ability and consistent depth will inspire Garcia to start hitting her groundstrokes again as well, even when the opening isn’t there.
It will be a game too far for Garcia.
Take: Buzkova ML (-114)
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