August 16, 2022

Kerber vs. Mertens odds

Kerber odds-300
Mertens odds+240
More less20.5
Time | How to watch9:30 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

What would have been a marquee match just a year or two ago between Angelique Kerber and Elise Mertens at Wimbledon has turned into what bookmakers consider a lopsided affair.

Is this assessment accurate? If so, does the current number go far enough?

Let’s analyze the match and see where the betting advantage lies.

Kerber back home on the grass

There is perhaps no player who enjoys the short grass season every year as much as Kerber.

The 2018 All England Club champion ranks near the top of the Tour in total wins and winning percentage among all women, and it’s easy to see why.

With some of the flattest groundstrokes on the tour, as well as one of the strongest lower bodies for getting close to the ball, catching it early and throwing it into open space, Kerber’s game was made for the green lawns.

The fact that she can create incredible angles in neutral exchanges and has a left-handed serve that she can spot with precision only adds to an incredibly strong fundamental foundation.

The form is there too, going 11-2 on grass last year, winning Bad Homburg and only losing to champion Ashleigh Barty at the All England Club.

This season they are 4-1 and have reached the third round, losing 11 matches in four sets.

Mertens in prolonged poor form

Before we get into the Belgian’s struggles, let’s first acknowledge something positive. Wimbledon marks the 18th consecutive snap that Mertens has reached at least the third round.

Now, not so positive.

The 2022 campaign has been a test of determination for many players. Garbine Muguruza collapsed on the court due to her play, Elina Svitolina announced a break before announcing that she and Gael Monfils were about to have a child, but nobody’s shortcomings on the courts this years have been as pronounced as those of Mertens.

Her best victory since mid-February came from her retirement against Petra Kvitova. The only quarter-final she has made since Saint Petersburg was in Strasbourg, in a weak field the week before Roland Garros.

Even his victories in the first two rounds were uninspiring. Camila Osorio is no courtesan on grass and only injury stopped her, as she led by a set and a break before retiring in the third. Mertens also trailed Panna Udvardy, who played five games in total on the box.

She needed a tiebreaker in the second and a 12-game third set to pull through.

bet value

With stylistic and form edges firmly in Kerber’s corner, the statistical analysis between these two doesn’t help the Belgian’s case much either.

Kerber has topped Mertens when it comes to career holding and save percentage – which isn’t all that surprising, considering she’s one of the best of her generation on the surface. This advantage becomes more pronounced when you consider only the most recent results. the 2021 and 2022 grass seasons).

With an Elo Rating advantage on grass of almost 200 points, Kerber has proven that she has not only amassed these impressive stats against mediocre and lesser competition. Even with the quality of the competition considered, Kerber – at this point – looks like a huge favorite to win this.

For me, while crossing the four-game gap mark gives the German star a lot of respect, it doesn’t go far enough for me. This one should be a flat five game and a bit more expensive than +100. 4.5 games at more money is something I will definitely be looking to attack.

Pick: Kerber -4.5 games (+104 via PointsBet)

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